The usage may not change much because the sellers were flying and now the buyers are flying - only thing that changes is the price that the aircraft changed hands at...BWTHDIK

I'm sorry Ian, I couldn't agree less. KTIW is not a "typical" GA airport and a chart showing an additional six flights per day over the previous year is stretching logic to the absurd.

The two relevant paragraphs from my previous post being:
So, yes, I want to know exactly how broad this buying surge is affecting the market. I'm not interested in" logic stretched thin" anecdotal evidence or BS opinions. This is not religion. We aren't looking into dark closets and speculating on what is or is not there, at least I'm not.

For this seller's market to really mean anything to most members here on BT, it has to encompass most of the market in types of aircraft, AND, there has to be a significant uptick in usage to underwrite and sustain the market. So far, THERE HAS NOT BEEN ONE MINUTIA OF HARD EVIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANCE.

But thanks for making my point.

Jg

I'm sorry Ian, I couldn't agree less. KTIW is not a "typical" GA airport and a chart showing an additional six flights per day over the previous year is stretching logic to the absurd.

The two relevant paragraphs from my previous post being:
So, yes, I want to know exactly how broad this buying surge is affecting the market. I'm not interested in" logic stretched thin" anecdotal evidence or BS opinions. This is not religion. We aren't looking into dark closets and speculating on what is or is not there, at least I'm not.

For this seller's market to really mean anything to most members here on BT, it has to encompass most of the market in types of aircraft, AND, there has to be a significant uptick in usage to underwrite and sustain the market. So far, THERE HAS NOT BEEN ONE MINUTIA OF HARD EVIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANCE.

But thanks for making my point.

Jg

Overall fuel sales are relatively flat. If you are seeing a big jump in activity at one airport, you can be assured it is both local and also offset by reduced activity somewhere else.

Well Ian,

If we can cherry pick , let me offer KGNF, my home base.

Deader than a vulture's supper.

Jg

Matt, are you talking about overall US aviation fuel sales? Does that include 121 operations? All types of aviation fuel?

Matt, are you talking about overall US aviation fuel sales? Does that include 121 operations? All types of aviation fuel?

US wholesale Avgas sales which I believe includes 100LL and an insignificant amount of 94. Note that it does not include Jet A or other non “gasoline” products.[/quote]

Mike Ciholas posted a graphic of this somewhere in this thread I believe.

Assuming GA flight activity to be flat today does not mean that it will not increase in the near term if COVID infections decline significantly. I don't think personal travel is back to where it was pre covid and business travel certainly isn't. So, I would expect that to be impacting measures of utilization. In other words it's possible that GA flight demand is up vis a vis other modes of travel but absolute utilization is flat because overall travel is down.

I know that is true in my own case where we are traveling for business dramatically less than we were in 2019.

If the JetA graphs are spiked higher this year, I will go ahead and say I feel personally responsible for any increase YoY from last years numbers

At least in my area (PNW), GA flights appear to be up considerably over 2019 figures per Flightaware. However, maybe the Flightaware data is misleading. Could it have to do with ADS-B requirements coming on line?

I’m glad the discussion turned to airport activity levels, I think this explains the difference in opinions everyone has, the guys who hang out at dying airports, think GA is dying. The guys who are at airports where we have waitlist a hundred deep for a t-hangar and are number five for take off and landing have a different perspective.

I’m typing this from a 737 right now and I can promise you that anyone who can afford to fly to avoid this pain will do so... period. I don’t think it will ever change. The airlines have been unfun since 9/11 and now it’s mask, viruses and no cocktails.

Three hours ago I was flying along at FL450 with an 8000 ft cabin, having a great conversation with clients who won’t have to endure this.

You can bet I’m going to figure out a way to fly private, be it a 182... a Yukon... or a share of my buddy’s Citation. If I get sick from this little venture it will wreck the next two weeks of my productivity. That I cannot afford.

Mike Ciholas posted a graphic of this somewhere in this thread I believe.

Assuming GA flight activity to be flat today does not mean that it will not increase in the near term if COVID infections decline significantly. I don't think personal travel is back to where it was pre covid and business travel certainly isn't. So, I would expect that to be impacting measures of utilization. In other words it's possible that GA flight demand is up vis a vis other modes of travel but absolute utilization is flat because overall travel is down.

I know that is true in my own case where we are traveling for business dramatically less than we were in 2019.[/quote]

Tony my friend, you just threw me a curve. "They" say, whoever "they" is that this buying activity is because people want to travel and don't want to use the airlines. If that is true, then, it seems to my weak mind that we should be seeing a noticeable increase in GA activity reflected in gallons of fuel burned. I think. WE ARE NOT.

Now, you do understand, and I think you DO UNDERSTAND, that I think all this is pure BS. Funny money is driving these purchases right and left, just like it is driving the insane demand for autos that are also scarce as frog hair. One dealer I know told me that they have been getting $10,000 over list for their new cars. The next batch to come in will be priced at $20,000 over list and no offers accepted.

Now, I may be wrong about the real driving force, but nobody has yet shown me any hard evidence of that.

Chip's market is turbines and jets. He sees a "big" increase. How big? I say minuscule in the overall scope of U.S. business activity.

THE OVERWHELMING % OF U.S. CORPORATIONS DO NOT RELY ON ANY PRIVATE/CORPORATE AVIATION FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF THEIR PEOPLE. Some forbid their top brass from even flying GA.

Anyway, there has been a whole lot of 2 +2 = 6 math put forth trying to justify this buying frenzy that, in reality, only touches a small portion of the GA market.

Whether I am right or wrong, the results of my being right or wrong will be enormous either way. With no more than I personally have invested in airplanes or intend to invest, most of my interest is pure curiosity.

Jg

JJG, of course business aviation has always been a small percentage of all travel, but it, at least in the turbine world, has increased dramatically.

This isn’t perception, it’s reality... it’s not just buying, it’s charter, fractional, all aspects are being effected. There will be many people that want to close this year and won’t be able to do a prebuy because the big shops are all booked.

All the manufacturers are sold out until 2022... some models until 2023!

Embraer is October 2022, Pilatus is December 2022 on the PC24 and mid 2023 on the PC12NGX, if I understood correctly they aren’t even taking additional orders for the NGX

Please understand I’m not exaggerating, we do not sell airplanes, I have no reason to overstate what is happening. I don’t want a hot market, I want a buyer’s market. I wish it was different, our job has become much harder this year.

For six years we’ve collected the best three to six options for each client, put them on their portal, usually within a couple of weeks (maybe days) and then we’d go out and negotiate hard, get the best airplane bought at the best price... today, all I can promise a new client is that we’re their best chance at finding an airplane at all.

Add to this remarkable increase in activity, the fact that finance companies and insurance companies are growing more hesitant with older airframes and we have a critical inventory shortage. Sure, not on every single model... but certainly on every popular model that isn’t ancient.

Some are saying that a lot of new jet buyers will have buyer’s remorse and bail out. I do see some of that happening on older Hawkers, Citation III, VII’s and maybe X’s... but even then I think a lot of those folks are just going to switch to something more practical.

Interesting times.

John,

Just to be clear I'm not arguing with you. In fact I think you have a very valid point(s). I think fuel sales are the best barometer we have of GA flying but that in this conversation not all of the variables have been considered. So, I added a possibility.

I read an article today that deposits are up year over year about 30% in U.S. Banks on average. My bank's deposits are not up that much but they are up significantly (which is actually a problem as we are too liquid as a result which is a net profit drain for a variety of reasons - though we are having our best year ever so no complaining) and every UBPR report I look at shows the same. Those deposits are neither from increased economic activity or decreased investment (primarily considering business accounts here but personal savings are also way up) they are from government created receipts - funny money in your parlance.

I don't think most people have any real idea about just how much money was created and distributed in the last 20 months. Every day I read about stupendous sums being allocated, spent, etc by government on every level with the note that they are "covid funds".

The net result is that there are people who are buying durable goods or assets that won't maintain their value into the future because the demand stimulus is artificial and temporary. So, we agree.

But, the other issue is that all of this injection of "money" did something else. It robbed those who had previously, through their own thrift, piled some up by making it worth less. My point is that many think they have been beneficiaries of government largesse, and many have, but that largesse, created out of thin air, has to come from somewhere and there will be a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth when those who had been conservative with their money find out what has been done to them. Unless of course, mankind has finally discovered the true desire of alchemists. I don't think they have.

Tony,

You do understand.

Jg