I completely agree, and I am not sure we should be cheering yet about the success of this mission. This unfortunately is just the beginning.

Being able to assess that all of the enriched uranium stock piles and enrichment capabilities were destroyed will be difficult if not impossible to know without having boots on the ground assuming no other secret facilities exist.

What is clear by reading the IAEA monitoring report is that immediate action was needed and the situation was and still is alarming.

https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/an ... ugust-2024

From this report's conclusions which are nearly a year old:

- Iran can produce more weapon-grade uranium (WGU) since the IAEA’s last report in May 2024 due to increased stocks of enriched uranium and a greatly enlarged advanced centrifuge capacity.
- Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium and its centrifuge capacity combined are sufficient to make enough WGU, taken as 25 kilograms (kg) of WGU per weapon, for nine nuclear weapons in one month, 12 in two months, 13 in three months, 14 in four months, and 15 in five months.
- With Iran’s growing enrichment experience and using only a portion of its stock of 60 percent highly enriched uranium (HEU) and only four advanced centrifuge cascades, Iran could produce its first quantity of 25 kg of WGU in about one week. This breakout could be difficult for the IAEA to detect promptly, if Iran delayed inspectors’ access.
- The installation of eight more IR-6 cascades at the deeply buried Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) since the last report means that Fordow alone could allow Iran to break out within days. With careful planning in advance and placement of all the stocks of 20 and 60 percent enriched uranium at the FFEP, it could produce enough WGU for four nuclear weapons in about two weeks and enough for almost six in a month. 3 By the end of the second month, it could make enough WGU for nine nuclear weapons. If Iran used only less than five percent enriched uranium, it would need about 1.5 months to make enough WGU for a nuclear weapon. If it used only natural uranium, it would need about five and a half months to produce enough WGU for a weapon.
- The installation of more IR-6 centrifuge cascades, as planned, would worsen the situation.

The report concludes with:

Combined with Iran’s refusal to resolve outstanding safeguards violations, the IAEA has a significantly reduced ability to monitor Iran’s complex and growing nuclear program, which notably has unresolved nuclear weapons dimensions. Iran is also under new scrutiny by U.S. and Israeli intelligence for conducting nuclear weapons-related activities. The IAEA’s ability to detect diversion of nuclear materials, equipment, and other capabilities to undeclared facilities remains greatly diminished.

This was and continues to be an existential threat to Israel and the rest of the world. We took the first step in the right direction, but I am not sure we are out of the woods.

Assuming diplomacy or negotiation are possible with religious fanatics who think their redemption and path to heaven is based on the total annihilation of Zionism from the face of the earth is naive and foolhardy. What prompted previous administrations (O&B) to return billions of dollars back to this regime is unbelievable and unforgivable.

Here is a chart of the increase in enrichment capacity over the past 14 years - an exponential and alarming growth over the past administration.

That's one strange looking airplane. Any reports on what it's like to fly? I assume it's inherently unstable so FBW.

I completely agree, and I am not sure we should be cheering yet about the success of this mission. This unfortunately is just the beginning.

unfortunately to change the situation in Iran will require the dictator and henchmen to be gone. in this world it only happens by the death of the dictator or a violent overthrow of the dictator

just look at history.

if you get around behind the dictatorship there is not good alternative for them because by the time they get to this point there is no way for them to retire to Switzerland. there is no scenario where the dictator group can continue to live a good life if they are not in power. so they will do anything kill anyone etc.

Putin is in this same situation now. his only hope is to outlast us

AFaIK it wouldn't be "flyable" without computer assisted controls. IIRC, the "stick" in the simulator looks and feels very similar to a high end gamer's PC joystick with no physical connection to control surfaces and it pivots just below the base of the grip.

If members of our armed forces are sent into harm's way - I will ALWAYS celebrate them completing their missions, coming away with mission success, and the safe return of all.

Whether I agree, or disagree, with the reason they were sent in the first place is an entirely different subject.

And I think that is exactly what Matt was doing

Good Post Brian

I agree that action was needed. But I don't think enriched uranium can ever be truly destroyed unless it undergoes fission. Let's assume the bunker busters blew up all the enriched stores underground at Fordo. It just becomes a simple mining excercise to recover the debris and process it, at a lot less effort than it was to produce it in the first place.

At best we have set them back 5 or so years.

It seems like a simple thing to monitor the sites for signs of excavation. Wash, rinse, and repeat. I hope that isn't necessary.

I agree that action was needed. But I don't think enriched uranium can ever be truly destroyed unless it undergoes fission. Let's assume the bunker busters blew up all the enriched stores underground at Fordo. It just becomes a simple mining excercise to recover the debris and process it, at a lot less effort than it was to produce it in the first place.

At best we have set them back 5 or so years.

That they are saying there is still no radiation detected makes me concerned that they didn't do enough damage. But I don't know what I don't know.

Or that they moved it to an unknown location prior to the bombing.

It's not like we didn't telegraph what we were going to do days/weeks before the mission.

Or that they moved it to an unknown location prior to the bombing.

It's not like we didn't telegraph what we were going to do days/weeks before the mission.

No worries. It’s trackable….and they’re being watched.

Or that they moved it to an unknown location prior to the bombing.

It's not like we didn't telegraph what we were going to do days/weeks before the mission.

Yup….and we don’t know what you don’t know.