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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Mar 2025, 09:20 
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I’ve pointed this out before, but we tend to view aircraft from a very personal viewpoint, “I have a V, Bobby has a V, I saw three V’s at the shop… everyone has a V!”

Here’s some actual numbers.

There are 214 Avanti Piaggio
There are 247 Citation V
There are 260 Citation Ultra
There are 457 Citation CJ4
There are 472 Citation Mustang
There are 838 Phenom 300/300E
There are 865 Challenger 300/350

We do acquisitions on all of the above except for the Piaggio, so I have a pretty good feel for what is in high demand and what isn’t. I’m also very familiar with the operational problems with all of them.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Mar 2025, 09:40 
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Username Protected wrote:
Operators value ease of operation, maintenance options, parts availability, and dispatch reliability over just about everything else.

That’s why a King Air or a Pilatus sells for more than a comparable Piaggio or legacy jet.

There’s a reason charter companies are buying hundreds of brand new Citations, Challengers, Phenoms and Praetors.

It’s easy for an involved owner to make a niche airplane work, but it’s not scalable.


We have a contract with a charter company and are on the EMB 300, Praetor, and Latitude. Ive been really impressed with the 300.


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Mar 2025, 09:42 
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Username Protected wrote:
There are 247 Citation V
There are 260 Citation Ultra

There is a lot of parts commonality with the entire 500 series so the ecosystem is much larger than these numbers suggest when you include 500, 501, 550, S550, 560.

Size of fleet and availability of parts don't always track, sometimes that is inversely correlated as large fleet operators get preference, or some newly discovered latent issue causes a parts shortage.

The painful extended AOG stories on CJP almost always involve newer planes. Precoolers, CJ4 window frame parts, etc. The Mustang will be a continual problem for parts since it shares almost nothing with the 500 or 525 series, which is one reason it was discontinued versus the M2, a 525 series airplane.

There is not much that is uncertain or unknown about the 500 series now. They aren't "niche" airplanes despite what someone might say trying to sell you newer and more expensive airplanes.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Mar 2025, 10:13 
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Username Protected wrote:
Operators value ease of operation, maintenance options, parts availability, and dispatch reliability over just about everything else.

That’s why a King Air or a Pilatus sells for more than a comparable Piaggio or legacy jet.

There’s a reason charter companies are buying hundreds of brand new Citations, Challengers, Phenoms and Praetors.

It’s easy for an involved owner to make a niche airplane work, but it’s not scalable.


We have a contract with a charter company and are on the EMB 300, Praetor, and Latitude. Ive been really impressed with the 300.


It is a great airplane! Embraer really got a lot of things right.
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Mar 2025, 10:51 
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Joined: 05/08/13
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Company: Citation Jet Exchange
Location: St. Louis
Aircraft: 58P C510 C525 Excel
We've never once had to wait for parts on the mustang I manage in 8 years. Same with other mustangs I've brokered and contract on. We have had to wait for weeks at various times on different 525 platforms. Yes, I know how to source parts world-wide and have access to numerous subscription part sites.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Mar 2025, 13:49 
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Username Protected wrote:
We've never once had to wait for parts on the mustang I manage in 8 years. Same with other mustangs I've brokered and contract on. We have had to wait for weeks at various times on different 525 platforms. Yes, I know how to source parts world-wide and have access to numerous subscription part sites.


Us either, just more FUD from Mike. If he bought a Mustang it would be the greatest airplane ever made.

The only issues we have seen on Mustangs are engine HSI issues with Pratt.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Mar 2025, 13:50 
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Username Protected wrote:
There are 247 Citation V
There are 260 Citation Ultra

There is a lot of parts commonality with the entire 500 series so the ecosystem is much larger than these numbers suggest when you include 500, 501, 550, S550, 560.

Size of fleet and availability of parts don't always track, sometimes that is inversely correlated as large fleet operators get preference, or some newly discovered latent issue causes a parts shortage.

The painful extended AOG stories on CJP almost always involve newer planes. Precoolers, CJ4 window frame parts, etc. The Mustang will be a continual problem for parts since it shares almost nothing with the 500 or 525 series, which is one reason it was discontinued versus the M2, a 525 series airplane.

There is not much that is uncertain or unknown about the 500 series now. They aren't "niche" airplanes despite what someone might say trying to sell you newer and more expensive airplanes.

Mike C.


Careful what you say about the Mustang… the future may not be kind to your assertions!
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Mar 2025, 14:02 
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Here’s my regular disclaimer, I love the Citation V / Ultra! In fact our very own Mike C. chose to purchase a V, partially because of a conversation he had with me.

All of these airplanes have issues and it is important to know what to expect.

I would list them here for the benefit of all, but the reality is that it changes, sometimes monthly. For instance, he mentioned precoolers, that is an issue that comes and goes. I mentioned issues with Mustang motors, until recently we never had any problems! Does buying a new airplane make you immune to that? No, we have a client we bought a brand new 300E for, he was unable to fly for five months because there was an engine issue and no loaners were available.

Mike is right, common parts are not an issue for Citation V / Ultra and that’s a plus… but, go buy some HT blades and tell me how that feels!

The largest fleet in general aviation is the vulnerable King Air, we just got a discrepancy list from Stevens on a B200 PPI, they squawked electric heat, my heart sunk, thank God they were talking about environmental. If you’re not AOG and order a King Air windshield today, it’s going to take more than a year to get it.

My goal isn’t to disparage any aircraft, my goal is to make owners aware of the potential risk with each model, so they aren’t blind sided. Sellers want you to believe whatever they are selling is the best. If you fall into the trap of thinking a good airplane is cheap, you’re probably wrong. If a particular type of aircraft is inexpensive, it’s because it’s costly to operate.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Mar 2025, 16:14 
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Location: KBED, KCRE
Aircraft: Phenom 100
Quote:
There are 214 Avanti Piaggio

An auto exec once told me they needed to sell 15,000 units before you started to see them while driving around and 50,000 units before you see them daily. I have seen exactly 1 Piaggio in my 15 years of flying, so I wonder how many need to be sold and how many need to be flown to regularly see a model. I wish I could see more of them, they are so unique.

Quote:
There are 838 Phenom 300/300E

That's an amazing number especially if you expect that would mean any of them would be reasonably priced. Nope, the market has spoken on that airframe....The gigantic price jump from 100 to 300 and the rate that the 300 sells I'm guessing it's not lowering.

Chip-


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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Mar 2025, 18:35 
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Joined: 12/03/14
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Company: Ciholas, Inc
Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
Username Protected wrote:
Mike is right, common parts are not an issue for Citation V / Ultra and that’s a plus… but, go buy some HT blades and tell me how that feels!

It feels a lot better than sending checks to Williams every month, or servicing $2M in extra debt to buy a CJ series. The cost of money alone makes flying my V basically free in comparison.

The on condition HT blades in the -4, -4B, -5, -5A engines last fairly well and Tarver found some company with a process to restore them for less than buying new ones. The -5D blades don't last as long as are really expensive.

I expected my cost per mile to double over the MU2, but it really hasn't. The key has been low cost maintenance from researching where to get service and parts, and the extended inspections under the LUMP. My cost per mile is about 50% more, which is a deal for the increase in capability.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Mar 2025, 18:57 
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Username Protected wrote:
Mike is right, common parts are not an issue for Citation V / Ultra and that’s a plus… but, go buy some HT blades and tell me how that feels!

It feels a lot better than sending checks to Williams every month, or servicing $2M in extra debt to buy a CJ series. The cost of money alone makes flying my V basically free in comparison.

The on condition HT blades in the -4, -4B, -5, -5A engines last fairly well and Tarver found some company with a process to restore them for less than buying new ones. The -5D blades don't last as long as are really expensive.

I expected my cost per mile to double over the MU2, but it really hasn't. The key has been low cost maintenance from researching where to get service and parts, and the extended inspections under the LUMP. My cost per mile is about 50% more, which is a deal for the increase in capability.

Mike C.


I’m hoping the best for you. You have two $1.2 Million dollar engines and a $500k airframe and yet all you talk about is how cheap you operate that airframe.

When our clients with FJ44 airplanes have a hot section due, it takes a few days. Again, be careful what you say… you do have a lot more options, but many of them are not good.
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Mar 2025, 22:36 
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I’m hoping the best for you. You have two $1.2 Million dollar engines and a $500k airframe and yet all you talk about is how cheap you operate that airframe.

I don't just talk about how cheap I operate it, I publish my numbers. Every dollar. I also publish my issues, like my AOG event. I'm the most transparent jet operator you can find. My comments are backed up by actual real evidence.

I'm also not selling anything which means I can be fully objective.

Quote:
When our clients with FJ44 airplanes have a hot section due, it takes a few days. Again, be careful what you say… you do have a lot more options, but many of them are not good.

FJ44 operators are looking at $500/hour TAP fees, plus 150 hours minimums, so they are spending at least $2.5M for one OH cycle. That's over 3 times what I paid for my airplane entirely.

Williams fees are escalating way faster than inflation, so in a few years who knows. Late in the year, when Williams announces their new rates, there is always a spate of heartburn among the FJ44 owners on the CJP website. They are some really upset people. They are powerless and Williams knows it. FJ44 owners don't own their airplane, they rent it from Williams.

Fear is powerful motivator and you can use it to motivate your customers so they hire you to avoid a disaster. All it takes is comments like above where you suggest there is some looming disaster about to befall people like me. Oh, so scary! I better hire the expert to save me from all that.

Mike C.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Mar 2025, 22:47 
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Username Protected wrote:
I’m hoping the best for you. You have two $1.2 Million dollar engines and a $500k airframe and yet all you talk about is how cheap you operate that airframe.

I don't just talk about how cheap I operate it, I publish my numbers. Every dollar. I also publish my issues, like my AOG event. I'm the most transparent jet operator you can find. My comments are backed up by actual real evidence.

I'm also not selling anything which means I can be fully objective.

Quote:
When our clients with FJ44 airplanes have a hot section due, it takes a few days. Again, be careful what you say… you do have a lot more options, but many of them are not good.

FJ44 operators are looking at $500/hour TAP fees, plus 150 hours minimums, so they are spending at least $2.5M for one OH cycle. That's over 3 times what I paid for my airplane entirely.

Williams fees are escalating way faster than inflation, so in a few years who knows. Late in the year, when Williams announces their new rates, there is always a spate of heartburn among the FJ44 owners on the CJP website. They are some really upset people. They are powerless and Williams knows it. FJ44 owners don't own their airplane, they rent it from Williams.

Fear is powerful motivator and you can use it to motivate your customers so they hire you to avoid a disaster. All it takes is comments like above where you suggest there is some looming disaster about to befall people like me. Oh, so scary! I better hire the expert to save me from all that.

Mike C.


You were going to buy an SII and I saved you from it.

You didn’t even have to hire me.
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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Mar 2025, 22:51 
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“FJ44 operators pay $2.5M to fly 5000 hours”

You can’t get another 5000 hours out of your V engines for less.

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 Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.
PostPosted: 28 Mar 2025, 23:36 
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Username Protected wrote:
“FJ44 operators pay $2.5M to fly 5000 hours”
You can’t get another 5000 hours out of your V engines for less.

Oh, another scary statement! The purveyor of doom speaks again!

My research says I can, by a factor of two.

I'll be doing a HSI here in about 200 hours, about 2 years. That will get me another 1800 hours.

Then I can do an overhaul. The life limited parts in the engine will make it through that overhaul as they will have cycles left sufficient for the entire OH cycle. That gets me another 3500 hours.

Based on conversations with owners and shops, my budget for HSI is $75K/side, for OH is $500K/side. That's $1.15M for 5300 hours, or $217/hour. My next 2000 hours (200 to HSI, 1800 after) are only $75/hour. Of course, something major could be found in my engines and I do take that risk, but that's not common.

I'll certainly let everyone know how my HSI turns out in about 2 years. When (or if) I get to the end of the next HSI period, 2000 hours from now, then a question may be whether to invest in the OH or to scrap the plane. That assessment will depend on market conditions at the time. If a lot of people are scrapping, then there are used parts/engines out there. If people aren't scrapping, then the plane has value and worth the overhaul. So we shall see. Another option is another HSI only, so that will depend on how well the engines are operating at that time. For engines with 10,000 hours on them, they seem to be doing quite well.

By the time I'm doing my HSI, TAP will be at $600/hour. By the time I'm doing my OH, TAP will be $1K/hour or more. They are now milking the cash cow and there is no incentive for them to be economical.

People that have 30 year old original CJs must be withering under the Williams tax. They have a moderately low value airframe but with a big obligation to Williams attached to it. It is like ransom money. Williams probably cost them more than the fuel.

Mike C.

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