BeechTalk - BT - Aircraft inventory levels are critically low.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 31 Oct 2021, 14:36

Username Protected wrote:

Step 2 is to have the maintenance facility do a logbook review during prebuy.

A detailed log book review can take days if it is to be meaningful.

My plane came with 200 lbs of records. Seemingly small almost ignorable entries can be major things and can take a lot of time to research.

For example:

"Replace PN 9912222-11 #1 position"

That means they replaced the LH main wheel. The logs can be full of these types of entries and they take time to research.

Mike C.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 31 Oct 2021, 15:15

"Maintenance personell" can probably be anyone. Unless it's clearly defined, then doesn't need to be A&P. Aviation is full of these self-feeding loops that become truths, because we repeat them.

Like with interior remodels, where there is this notion that a an A&P person must sign off the burn test. Show me where it says an A&P must do the burn tests? In fact, show me ANY certification you need to have to conduct the burn tests?

Username Protected · **Posted:** 31 Oct 2021, 15:17

- How Low Inventory Levels for Pre-Owned Aircraft Affect Business Aviation Maintenance https://www.aviationpros.com/aircraft/m ... aintenance

A google of Aircraft inventory levels are critically low, as vague as it is gets you this Beechtalk thread.

Nothing else out there specific either with just 'Aircraft inventory levels'
https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... ory+levels

Without someone being able to define 'Aircraft inventory levels are critically low', it's a can of worms.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 31 Oct 2021, 15:27

Username Protected wrote:

- How Low Inventory Levels for Pre-Owned Aircraft Affect Business Aviation Maintenance https://www.aviationpros.com/aircraft/m ... aintenance

A google of Aircraft inventory levels are critically low, as vague as it is gets you this Beechtalk thread.

Nothing else out there specific either with just 'Aircraft inventory levels'
https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... ory+levels

Without someone being able to define 'Aircraft inventory levels are critically low', it's a can of worms.

Maybe "I can't get the plane I want for the price I'm willing to pay?"

Username Protected · **Posted:** 31 Oct 2021, 16:06

The first post starts with

Quote:

I've been doing this a long time and I have never seen used (or new) aircraft inventory levels this low. My world is acquiring turbine aircraft so that is what I know best, but

& mentions

Quote:

apparently the same thing is happening, maybe worse, in piston airplanes.

Then 4 paragraphs of ..whatever

Quote:

It's hard to even calculate how low inventory levels are because most of the aircraft advertised for sale on Controller either aren't real or are already sold.

There's 48 King Air B200's currently listed for sale, but when you look at them there's nothing there. Sold, damaged, overpriced. But, even if they were real you are talking about a fleet of 1042 airplanes and only 48 are even supposedly for sale? That number usually stays between two and three times that.

Take the Learjet 45XR, there's only 3 or 4 US airplanes for sale, we bought one for a client last year and had at least a dozen to pick from. We purchased the third one we actually looked at! My client could sell his airplane today for a profit and will probably be able to sell it next year for a substantial profit.

Everyone knows we do a lot of Mustangs... decent airplane on an engine program, no damage history, priced right?

Then apparently

Quote:

The chances are almost 100% that we have to find that airplane off market, there's just nothing out there.

hmmm only 1 way :scratch:

I wonder what that turns a thread into?

Oh yeah..

Quote:

I keep hearing people say it's going to drop.

When?

Have fun with that :popcorn:

Username Protected · **Posted:** 31 Oct 2021, 16:19

Username Protected wrote:

you guys are making me nervous with stories of rapid depressurization with a Williams 501. LOL

Spent a lot of time getting the bleed air checked and dialed but maybe need to spend more time on checking other hoses. for sure don't want that kind of failure.

And good reminder to have the cabin mask on auto and mask on or ready.

Mike

This video is pretty chilling. Guy goes hypoxic in a chamber and even with the instructor yelling at him to put the mask back on or he's going to die, he can't figure out what to do:

[youtube]https://youtu.be/kUfF2MTnqAw[/youtube]

Username Protected · **Posted:** 31 Oct 2021, 17:15

Username Protected wrote:

This video is pretty chilling. Guy goes hypoxic in a chamber and even with the instructor yelling at him to put the mask back on or he's going to die, he can't figure out what to do:

We all have a few differences in symptoms at onset. But ultimately…. We all get stupid.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 31 Oct 2021, 18:02

That’s why a good idea to go up in a chamber if you fly
in flight levels. Find out what your initial symptoms are.

Craig

Username Protected · **Posted:** 31 Oct 2021, 20:55

Username Protected wrote:

- How Low Inventory Levels for Pre-Owned Aircraft Affect Business Aviation Maintenance https://www.aviationpros.com/aircraft/m ... aintenance

A google of Aircraft inventory levels are critically low, as vague as it is gets you this Beechtalk thread.

Nothing else out there specific either with just 'Aircraft inventory levels'
https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... ory+levels

Without someone being able to define 'Aircraft inventory levels are critically low', it's a can of worms.

We have software that tracks inventory levels it’s just not publicly available. When I quote numbers such as the number of aircraft in the fleet, that’s where I get my data.

It’s a subscription service, most folks in the business have it. One of the issues is it only tracks “for sale” and “closed” and with most closings taking a month or two it skews the data.

We know the exact inventory levels in markets we are currently engaged in, for instance I could tell you exactly how many Phenom 100’s, TBM850’s, Challenger 604’s, Citation CJ1’s, PC12NG’s and PC24’s are available. We have researchers who call and get the status of the airplanes listed on Controller, so we know if they’re already sold or simply not really for sale.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 31 Oct 2021, 23:52

Username Protected wrote:

- How Low Inventory Levels for Pre-Owned Aircraft Affect Business Aviation Maintenance https://www.aviationpros.com/aircraft/m ... aintenance

A google of Aircraft inventory levels are critically low, as vague as it is gets you this Beechtalk thread.

Nothing else out there specific either with just 'Aircraft inventory levels'
https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... ory+levels

Without someone being able to define 'Aircraft inventory levels are critically low', it's a can of worms.

We have software that tracks inventory levels it’s just not publicly available. When I quote numbers such as the number of aircraft in the fleet, that’s where I get my data.

It’s a subscription service, most folks in the business have it. One of the issues is it only tracks “for sale” and “closed” and with most closings taking a month or two it skews the data.

We know the exact inventory levels in markets we are currently engaged in, for instance I could tell you exactly how many Phenom 100’s, TBM850’s, Challenger 604’s, Citation CJ1’s, PC12NG’s and PC24’s are available. We have researchers who call and get the status of the airplanes listed on Controller, so we know if they’re already sold or simply not really for sale.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 01 Nov 2021, 01:28

Username Protected wrote:

We know the exact inventory levels in markets we are currently engaged in, for instance I could tell you exactly how many Phenom 100’s, TBM850’s, Challenger 604’s, Citation CJ1’s, PC12NG’s and PC24’s are available. We have researchers who call and get the status of the airplanes listed on Controller, so we know if they’re already sold or simply not really for sale.

That fails to capture the local and limited person to person sales that never get advertised. You can only detect that after the fact with registration changes, not in the moment.

So your numbers will be incomplete even though you spend money to a service (which always makes one feel like the numbers are valuable). There's no way that service can know what is going on in private conversations and transactions.

Also, planes listed on controller are often not for sale. In some jurisdictions, you can avoid sales tax if you are a "dealer" and one way to be a dealer is to advertise an airplane for sale. But they really aren't.

Mike C.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 01 Nov 2021, 11:49

Username Protected wrote:

Well, as a newly acquired Phenom 100 owner I’d be interested in what you view that market as. As we have had 3 unsolicited offers for a plane we’ve owned less than 5 months willing to pay a minimum 35% premium on for our plane!?! I understand we have a late model version of the lighter ones but our plane hasn’t been through the 120 month gear and inspection. Yet people are willing to throw an extra $600,000 in my pocket to sell it right now.

No idea why.

Chip-

Stories like this make me think a bubble is upon us. We've propped up our economy on borrowed money for so long now, I fear we might see very serious negative consequences.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 01 Nov 2021, 15:16

Username Protected wrote:

Stories like this make me think a bubble is upon us. We've propped up our economy on borrowed money for so long now, I fear we might see very serious negative consequences.

I don't have a hard time believing the pandemic has created a fundamental demand shift for private aircraft. There were (and still are) many more people who can afford to use private planes than actually do so. There is essentially zero ability to bring new capacity online quickly. So demand goes up ... prices go up.

Not that the borrowed/printed money story is inaccurate. But I don't see any odd stories to explain the rising prices.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 01 Nov 2021, 15:25

Username Protected wrote:

Stories like this make me think a bubble is upon us. We've propped up our economy on borrowed money for so long now, I fear we might see very serious negative consequences.

I don't have a hard time believing the pandemic has created a fundamental demand shift for private aircraft. There were (and still are) many more people who can afford to use private planes than actually do so. There is essentially zero ability to bring new capacity online quickly. So demand goes up ... prices go up.

Not that the borrowed/printed money story is inaccurate. But I don't see any odd stories to explain the rising prices.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 01 Nov 2021, 16:10

Not the whole picture, but those at the top of the economic spectrum that can afford to buy these assets have substantially increased their wealth after both the 2008 collapse and the pandemic. I don't think the economy can shift from producing mass market items to luxury items that quickly. There is a similar crunch in large yachts.

Semiconductor and logistical issues are creating across the board constriants, but I don't think that has created the acute situation at the very high end.