I would agree that it is not possible to know how every single transaction closed, but there are many sources of information and ways to gather reliable market data. JetNet, Amstat, Conklin, etc. do it every day. Here's a video from JetNet's website and how it can help - having market intelligence from the get-go is certainly more efficient than working the phones.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/evK3hu9BpLs[/youtube]

There is no way JetNet knows what I paid for my plane.

They are selling estimated or extrapolated data with no way for anyone to verify they are correct.

This is much like C&D with their operating cost numbers.

These businesses exist because they create an appearance of sophisticated analysis and insight when none may exist. I could do the exact same thing by screen scraping aircraft listings and running some automated analysis tool on it.

A plane is worth exactly what a buyer will pay for it, nothing more, nothing less.

Right now, the prices for entry level owner flown turbine equipment is falling. Light turboprops and light jets are getting cheaper at about 20% per year.

A further depressant on the market is the impending ADS-B mandate. Some of the turbine equipment is expensive/hard to upgrade to ADS-B and without it, they become useless on 1/1/2020. I suspect there will be a noticeable amount of airframe retirements at the end of 2019 in the older turbines worth under $250K presently.

Mike C.

How would your algorithm deal with "Call for price"?

Extrapolate from those with a price.

Extrapolate from other types of similar age and use.

Or, just guess.

How would anyone know?

Mike C.

I believe that some owners and most brokers report sales to these companies. Brokers participate because they rely on this info. I have been contacted by Amstat after selling and buying an airplane.

Extrapolate from those with a price.

Extrapolate from other types of similar age and use.

Or, just guess.

How would anyone know?

Mike C.

Like I said.... I'd lie and give them a high price. It's of no benefit to a buyer to let everyone know the low price you just paid.

The only way to get remotely accurate info is to make your own spreadsheet and call every listing on the internet. You pick up on little comments when you talk to so many people. You hear about other sales and what the may have sold at. It's a lot of work. So much work I never give away the info I collect.

My broker keeps a spreadsheet of all the sales his group makes. They don't share the info. Why would they?

Some sellers may, because they don't give a %#$@ at that point.

May?

I wouldn't trust what a seller says. No seller wants everyone to know how much they lost on their airplane.

True. To get any hard facts in anything aviation seems to be mostly futile.

I would go so far as to advise any buyer not to look at websites like JetNet. It's bad info put out purposefully. Mis-information designed to trick you into paying more than you should. Anyone giving away this information has a agenda and that agenda is NOT to make less money.

That's what they're doing. The only difference between you and them is they are selling that work as a service to people who don't want to do it.

Since "they" are not the ones selling or buying the aircraft then they have no idea what the sales actually are. Their motivation to get the correct info is far lower than my motivation and who is to say their numbers are wrong when nobody knows what the real numbers are? All the more reason I would assume they are trying to put bad info out there.

My broker friend that keeps track of all of his data would never sell it because it's worth it's weight in gold. Nobody would pay what it's worth to him and even then if you did, how could you trust that his numbers were true?

This article makes me feel like Phenom 100's should be free.
http://www.phenom.aero/resources/librar ... e_cost.pdf

What’s the rego of the one that sold for 1.3M, I’ll look it up and advise?

I’m not in the market for a P100, I do follow the market and that is cheap buying.

Andrew