23 Nov 2025, 16:49 [ UTC - 5; DST ]
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Oct 2021, 10:54 |
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Joined: 04/24/18 Posts: 736 Post Likes: +359 Location: NYC
Aircraft: ISP Eagle II SR22 g2
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Username Protected wrote: The Williams program is exactly that. Israel, I don't see it that way. You basically own engines that always have the financial value of freshly overhauled engines, and that goes into your capex. If I were truly renting the engines, I could sell my plane for the cost of the airframe.
You can currently buy an fj44-2a powered 501 for about a million dollars. Overhauling 2 engines cost about 1.7 million. You may own the value of 2 freshly overhauled engines but you’re paying 50 cents on the dollar when purchased. And you’ll obviously collect something to that effect on sale (pending market conditions). Just like anything else, supply and demand is what drives the price not overhaul cost.
When you buy a Williams powered airplane you pay for the privilege of getting the performance and efficiency they provide with peace of mind from a Mx perspective, for 330 an hour. Everything else is fluff.
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Oct 2021, 11:15 |
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Joined: 12/03/14 Posts: 20766 Post Likes: +26271 Company: Ciholas, Inc Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
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Username Protected wrote: Just like anything else, supply and demand is what drives the price not overhaul cost. Demand and supply are directly impacted by overhaul costs. Overhaul costs high? Airframes get retired, lower supply. Overhaul costs high? Buyers steer away, lower demand. We both have picked different strategies. I'm going JT15D, no program, and flying past TBO. I take risk on engine problems, but I save lots of money not sent to Williams that I will never see in my use case. I burn a little more fuel, but can deal with contaminated runways and brakes failures more easily. You are going FJ44, on program, and have the engine taken care of. You benefit from unscheduled insurance and no worry about overhaul cost. You have to pay $330/hour and hope Williams benevolence continues. You burn less fuel, but are constrained by runway conditions. Each strategy has its positive and negatives. I estimate you are doing about 380 KTAS at 800 pph, 0.48 nm/lbs. The Eagle II I test flew wouldn't do that speed, so I think this is generous. I'm doing 410 KTAS at 1100 pph, 0.37 nm/lbs. This is an actual measurement, not book. If I slow down to 380 KTAS, I'll do about 920 pph, 0.41 nm/lbs. This is only 14% worse than you at the same speed. To be fair, my plane is quite a bit larger and heavier, too, so it isn't apples to apples directly. A stock 501 with JT15D-1A engines will have lower performance and results. If I owned a 501, it would be a Stallion (FJ44-2A, no fuel hump) so it can go 15-20 knots faster. Range is less, but not that much less especially if hitting a strong headwind. Mike C.
_________________ Email mikec (at) ciholas.com
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Oct 2021, 11:17 |
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Joined: 12/03/14 Posts: 20766 Post Likes: +26271 Company: Ciholas, Inc Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
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Username Protected wrote: Also, isn't it so that because Williams is a military provider, all their data is protected and this eliminates the possibility for anyone else to make an STC for maintenance or overhaul on the side. This is a bogus cover story. Every engine maker has military connections, including Pratt. There are no secrets in the FJ44 engine since anybody can get one and disassemble it. Williams wants to control everything in house for business reasons. The military thing is just an excuse not to say that out loud. Mike C.
_________________ Email mikec (at) ciholas.com
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Oct 2021, 11:33 |
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Joined: 12/03/14 Posts: 20766 Post Likes: +26271 Company: Ciholas, Inc Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
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Username Protected wrote: Mike, what's the overhaul costs of the JT's? And how much would it cost to be on a program for the JT's? Those are hard numbers to get. I've heard anywhere from $200K to $600K for a JT15D-5A. The lower end is a routine overhaul (no major findings, no time/cycle outs) at an independent economical shop. The upper end is boutique places like PWC or Dallas and still assumes no truly major time outs. If you have time out parts, say impeller, costs can rise significantly. New impeller is $250K or so. A complete set of HT blades close to $200K. And so forth. You want to be paying attention to the records for the life remaining on life limited parts. JSSI has a program for JT15D which run about $250/hour per engine. More expensive than Williams, and not economical viable, IMO. Few operators are on this program. JSSI is charging a healthy premium, and their fine print is troublesome in some cases. Mike C.
_________________ Email mikec (at) ciholas.com
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Oct 2021, 11:42 |
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Joined: 04/24/18 Posts: 736 Post Likes: +359 Location: NYC
Aircraft: ISP Eagle II SR22 g2
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Username Protected wrote: Just like anything else, supply and demand is what drives the price not overhaul cost. Demand and supply are directly impacted by overhaul costs. Overhaul costs high? Airframes get retired, lower supply. Overhaul costs high? Buyers steer away, lower demand. Quote: Williams cost to overhaul doesn’t retire airframes Or drive away buyers. We both have picked different strategies. Quote: We have very similar strategies. As you noted below, if you buy a 501 it’ll be Williams powered. And if/when I buy a 560 it’ll be Pratt powered. To further elucidate this, if a 560 existed that was powered by the fj44-4’s that sells for a similar premium to the the stallion/eagle with a similar benefit/cost delta structure, would you not buy one? I'm going JT15D, no program, and flying past TBO. I take risk on engine problems, but I save lots of money not sent to Williams that I will never see in my use case. I burn a little more fuel, but can deal with contaminated runways and brakes failures more easily. You are going FJ44, on program, and have the engine taken care of. You benefit from unscheduled insurance and no worry about overhaul cost. You have to pay $330/hour and hope Williams benevolence continues. You burn less fuel, but are constrained by runway conditions. Each strategy has its positive and negatives. I estimate you are doing about 380 KTAS at 800 pph, 0.48 nm/lbs. The Eagle II I test flew wouldn't do that speed, so I think this is generous. I'm doing 410 KTAS at 1100 pph, 0.37 nm/lbs. This is an actual measurement, not book. If I slow down to 380 KTAS, I'll do about 920 pph, 0.41 nm/lbs. This is only 14% worse than you at the same speed. To be fair, my plane is quite a bit larger and heavier, too, so it isn't apples to apples directly. A stock 501 with JT15D-1A engines will have lower performance and results. If I owned a 501, it would be a Stallion (FJ44-2A, no fuel hump) so it can go 15-20 knots faster. Range is less, but not that much less especially if hitting a strong headwind. Mike C.
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Oct 2021, 11:45 |
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Joined: 04/24/18 Posts: 736 Post Likes: +359 Location: NYC
Aircraft: ISP Eagle II SR22 g2
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Username Protected wrote: Mike, what's the overhaul costs of the JT's? And how much would it cost to be on a program for the JT's? Those are hard numbers to get. I've heard anywhere from $200K to $600K for a JT15D-5A. The lower end is a routine overhaul (no major findings, no time/cycle outs) at an independent economical shop. The upper end is boutique places like PWC or Dallas and still assumes no truly major time outs. If you have time out parts, say impeller, costs can rise significantly. New impeller is $250K or so. A complete set of HT blades close to $200K. And so forth. You want to be paying attention to the records for the life remaining on life limited parts. JSSI has a program for JT15D which run about $250/hour per engine. More expensive than Williams, and not economical viable, IMO. Few operators are on this program. JSSI is charging a healthy premium, and their fine print is troublesome in some cases. Mike C.
Is there any program out there that you’ve looked into and consider a better value than TAP BLUE?
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Oct 2021, 11:59 |
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Joined: 03/04/13 Posts: 2793 Post Likes: +1409 Location: Little Rock, Ar
Aircraft: A36 C560 C551 C560XL
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I’m always amused when I see a Williams on JSSI. Since there is only one place to get any work done on a Williams motor, how does JSSI add any value?
Robert T
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Oct 2021, 12:03 |
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Joined: 04/24/18 Posts: 736 Post Likes: +359 Location: NYC
Aircraft: ISP Eagle II SR22 g2
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Username Protected wrote: I’m always amused when I see a Williams on JSSI. Since there is only one place to get any work done on a Williams motor, how does JSSI add any value?
Robert T Have you seen Williams engines on jssi?
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Oct 2021, 12:18 |
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Joined: 03/04/13 Posts: 2793 Post Likes: +1409 Location: Little Rock, Ar
Aircraft: A36 C560 C551 C560XL
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I’ve seen airplanes advertised with JSSI.
Robert T
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Oct 2021, 12:24 |
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Joined: 04/24/18 Posts: 736 Post Likes: +359 Location: NYC
Aircraft: ISP Eagle II SR22 g2
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Username Protected wrote: I’ve seen airplanes advertised with JSSI.
Robert T Interesting. Maybe it’s on the flex program.
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Oct 2021, 14:19 |
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Joined: 12/03/14 Posts: 20766 Post Likes: +26271 Company: Ciholas, Inc Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
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Username Protected wrote: Is there any program out there that you’ve looked into and consider a better value than TAP BLUE? Yes, it's called "owner funded". But yes, TAP Blue is the best engine program I know of. It isn't the program that's the main issue, it is the treatment you get off program from Williams. No third party shops, king's ransom HSI/OH costs, etc. Williams penalizes off program so much as to make it non viable. Williams has told me they purposefully price off program (what they call "commercial") work 30% higher than if you had made the program payments. Mike C.
_________________ Email mikec (at) ciholas.com
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Post subject: Re: Aircraft inventory levels are critically low. Posted: 27 Oct 2021, 14:25 |
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Joined: 12/03/14 Posts: 20766 Post Likes: +26271 Company: Ciholas, Inc Location: KEHR
Aircraft: C560V
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Username Protected wrote: We have very similar strategies. As you noted below, if you buy a 501 it’ll be Williams powered. Because the 501 is lame and under powered otherwise. Quote: And if/when I buy a 560 it’ll be Pratt powered. Only way you can get it now, of course. Quote: To further elucidate this, if a 560 existed that was powered by the fj44-4’s that sells for a similar premium to the the stallion/eagle with a similar benefit/cost delta structure, would you not buy one? An FJ44-4 upgrade to a 560 has been looked into seriously before. The projected $2.5M upgrade cost just isn't viable for the market. So what you describe is a fantasy, it will never happen. Williams would make more money if the lowered the engine prices and encouraged more such conversions. But alas, no. I would seriously consider a 560 with FJ44-4 at about a $500K premium. At $1M premium, too much. But this is an academic discussion, that choice will never be presented. Since owning a JT15D, I have become more favorable to them. Thrust reversers are a bigger deal than I had thought. Simple mechanical fuel controls avoid all these FADEC issues people have. Simple systems. I am surprised that my fuel premium is as low as it is, due to the extra performance of the V. I thought that would be 30% but it is closer to 15% as compared to, say, 510/550 with FJ44. Mike C.
_________________ Email mikec (at) ciholas.com
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