BeechTalk - BT - PC-12 based "All You Can Fly" airline startup

Username Protected · **Posted:** 03 Jun 2013, 21:44

Username Protected wrote:

I thought Lorenzo's Jet Capital Corp bought TTA, and later Continental and Eastern.

Correct.

Jet Capital (IIRC) was the holding company from which Texas Air Corp was formed.

At the time, many did not realize just who bought who; it was to many inconceivable that the little airline with the Peanut Fares (TI) could acquire the big carrier (CO). The CO name was kept for fairly obvious reasons,mand CO 's hq was moved from Ls Angeles to Houston.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 03 Jun 2013, 21:49

When they announced this earlier, the SF airport was Palo Alto. That can be more than 30 minutes from SFO in traffic. And SWA certainly won't be flying out of there. But now the website just says "Bay Area".

I wonder if they haven't settled on a field yet. Can you run a 135 operation off a 2400' runway?

Username Protected wrote:

As soon as someone offers that, SWA will offer 89$ flights until the startup is dead. The economics of SurfAir must be sheer hell, they need enough customers to have a load factor or 3-4 per leg, but enough accounts to cover the monthly operating costs even if empty.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 03 Jun 2013, 22:57

I am sure others can cover this in better detail.
-- Charter's can be "scheduled" Part 135. There are plenty of examples.
-- The target market I think is mid level to upper level management with commuting requirements between the cities.
-- Would be interesting if they would publish the metrics. But if you assume a shuttle type service they still have a descent shot at it. The PC12NG on a charter basis runs about 2K per hour based o a quick search. The longest flight proposed is a single hour; that is 2K. If you assume 10 flights a day, five days a week plus 4 or so for the weekend. That is 54 flights a week or about 216 a month. That means they break even from a pure cost perspective with only 300 members. Chances are pretty good for that to work.

Tim

Username Protected · **Posted:** 03 Jun 2013, 23:00

Username Protected wrote:

As soon as someone offers that, SWA will offer 89$ flights until the startup is dead. The economics of SurfAir must be sheer hell, they need enough customers to have a load factor or 3-4 per leg, but enough accounts to cover the monthly operating costs even if empty.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 03 Jun 2013, 23:15

Username Protected wrote:

It seemed to me Lorenzo raised a bunch of OPM cash, formed JCC, bought TTA, CO, and EA then busted the unions, parted out Eastern, which later failed, shut down TTA, sold what is now Sabre to EDS, then bankrupted Continental. Great legacy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Lorenzo

Do you think any of these companies would have done any better without his involvement ?

Username Protected · **Posted:** 03 Jun 2013, 23:25

The target market is probably 500 people in Silicon Valley for whom $1500/month Just Doesn't Matter and who want slick transportation to Santa Monica and Tahoe.

Username Protected wrote:

I am sure others can cover this in better detail.
-- Charter's can be "scheduled" Part 135. There are plenty of examples.
-- The target market I think is mid level to upper level management with commuting requirements between the cities.
-- Would be interesting if they would publish the metrics. But if you assume a shuttle type service they still have a descent shot at it. The PC12NG on a charter basis runs about 2K per hour based o a quick search. The longest flight proposed is a single hour; that is 2K. If you assume 10 flights a day, five days a week plus 4 or so for the weekend. That is 54 flights a week or about 216 a month. That means they break even from a pure cost perspective with only 300 members. Chances are pretty good for that to work.

Tim

Username Protected · **Posted:** 04 Jun 2013, 00:30

Another aviation business model built around emotion, love, enthusiasm, and dreams.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 04 Jun 2013, 00:32

Username Protected wrote:

The target market is probably 500 people in Silicon Valley for whom $1500/month Just Doesn't Matter and who want slick transportation to Santa Monica and Tahoe.

A) That is likely to be more than 500 people.
B) The Tahoe thing is a little different because presumably the $1500/month is per person. I don't know that many people who go to Tahoe by themselves, most take the family or whatever. In lots of cases a simple charter would make more sense for that scenario. Although... there are a number who meet the family up there, so... maybe.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 04 Jun 2013, 00:35

Username Protected wrote:

It seemed to me Lorenzo raised a bunch of OPM cash, formed JCC, bought TTA, CO, and EA then busted the unions, parted out Eastern, which later failed, shut down TTA, sold what is now Sabre to EDS, then bankrupted Continental. Great legacy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Lorenzo

Bear in mind that Wikipedia articles can be written by anyone, and while Francisco is no saint, he is not half the devil he is portrayed to be. Just not a "people person."

TI was nearly failed when Lorenzo acquired control, and it was only through the financial responsibility and courage to do new and different things that TI survived.

Continental was financially moribund as well, when it was acquired. The first bankruptcy was caused by the IAM. What came later was (from my perspective) the inevitable result of too many acquisitions, too fast (TI+CO+EA+NY+FL+PE=hopeless indigestion).

Username Protected · **Posted:** 04 Jun 2013, 00:36

Username Protected wrote:

Scheduled flights, but not 121? Part 121 that doesn't have to use screening?

Part 135, but scheduled?

There are several companies doing scheduled 135...again. I thought it went away when the regionals went to 121, but some of the small operators flying EAS are using Caravans, PC12s, and run-out Cessna 402s.

I believe Cape Air (402) pax goto the terminal, but SeaPort (PC12) parks at the FBO and shuttles their passengers to the terminal.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 04 Jun 2013, 00:45

All this arline history reminds me of a book I read in college, Hard Landing by Tom Petzinger. Great read.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 04 Jun 2013, 01:04

Username Protected wrote:

The PC12NG on a charter basis runs about 2K per hour based o a quick search. The longest flight proposed is a single hour; that is 2K. If you assume 10 flights a day, five days a week plus 4 or so for the weekend. That is 54 flights a week or about 216 a month. That means they break even from a pure cost perspective with only 300 members. Chances are pretty good for that to work.

That works great until all 300 members show up for Monday 8 am flight, like business people normally do. Then you have 291 pissed off customers who couldn't get on the plane.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 04 Jun 2013, 01:09

Username Protected wrote:

The PC12NG on a charter basis runs about 2K per hour based o a quick search. The longest flight proposed is a single hour; that is 2K. If you assume 10 flights a day, five days a week plus 4 or so for the weekend. That is 54 flights a week or about 216 a month. That means they break even from a pure cost perspective with only 300 members. Chances are pretty good for that to work.

That works great until all 300 members show up for Monday 8 am flight, like business people normally do. Then you have 291 pissed off customers who couldn't get on the plane.

Username Protected · **Posted:** 04 Jun 2013, 09:33

Username Protected wrote:

All this arline history reminds me of a book I read in college, Hard Landing by Tom Petzinger. Great read.

Great book...and anyone who read/enjoyed "Hard Landing" should also read "Flying The Line Part II" by George Hopkins. Hopkins gives the "human" side of the story from the crewmember/pilot union standpoint (which is a nice counterpoint to Petzinger's "corporate" side of the story. And if you really want to get into the weeds on the Continental issues from 1983 to 1985, then "Collusion With Collusion" by JT Bertrand is also a must (and while previously hard to find, is now apparently on Kindle for e-book reading).

-Neal

Username Protected · **Posted:** 04 Jun 2013, 10:04

I hope it works for them. Nice paint on the plane too.