I pretty much agree with Leif's points.

With my post, not saying replace fixed wing pistons. And not today or tomorrow. Probably 10-20 years before anything impactful happens.

Looking at electric cars, we had them but took Elon to really make them work from a market standpoint (even then small volume compared to combustion). That VTOL could take some of that market away. If you go with an uber type of service you order at specific pickup locations or however they plan to offer the service.

A reason it seems like it could impact is piston GA with leaded fuel - even though they are working on it and have been working on longer than I bet VTOLS will have that pressure on the market as we already see in some state(s). Which is similar to noise or any reason to close an airport.

wait until the first VTOL comes down in a crowded area and kills someone. they will be pretty safe but if something fails they will crash no glide capability with most designs. nothing is perfect.

the NIMBY effect will be huge and drive every one back to surface transportation like autonomous cars.

My guess? The same thing as after a car or plane crash. ( )

The VTOL is still in the fantasy stage. What happens after the first crash?

It’s not that anyone is going to give up. It’s just that the VTOL has a long way to go before it starts pushing out GA aircraft. One can’t deny that an early crash or two would reduce customer enthusiasm.

I have been privileged to live through a time period where fantasy became reality time and time and time again. In some ways, I have been surprised at my inability to see what would succeed and what would fail. I guess I'm not as smart as I think I am. What I have learned is that it is not wise, on my part, to second guess public preference, or doubt the ability of technical progress.

That being said, I see more roadblocks than free passes for VTOLS. Even if the negatives I see are neutered by technology, there is still the issue of "unintended consequences"; like wind turbines slaughtering wildlife.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say what I see as the answer to travel issues: less of it. One step at a time, technology is removing the need for us to leave the house for work, shopping and pleasure. It may conjure up a world that does not appeal to me, but, then, I never could get into hard rock music either.

Jg

In a nut shell...brillirant... I think you hit this one on the head.
So much to see traveling up and down that key board.

Disagree.


First person experiences of sights and cultures will never be replaced virtually no matter what the technology.

“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime.”

-Mark Twain

2022



"I thought there would be flying cars... where are the flying cars?"

My answer to this is that they're called helicopters. You can buy one if you want.

The VTOL is still in the fantasy stage. What happens after the first crash?

My answer to this is that they're called helicopters. You can buy one if you want.

A wise man once told me: you can have anything you want. You just can't have EVERYTHING you want.

I wise man once told me, “get it now before it’s gone.”