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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 17:02 
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Joined: 01/24/10
Posts: 7435
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Location: Concord , CA (KCCR)
Aircraft: 1967 Baron B55
Username Protected wrote:
After reading this entire thread I'm feeling a bit sick at my stomach, I just sent a 1973 Bo in for $50k panel upgrade and just replaced the 70's look interior with leather, from carpet to headliner $$$
I felt and still do "on top of the world" after getting my instrument rating which I wanted for over 16 years.......you guys are bumming me out :whiteflag: ......I guess I'm closing my eyes to what may be reality, hope all you boys are wrong. I figure I have another 10-15 good flying years left in me....hell I still shoot approaches in my sleep I love it sooooo much.
I don't make a lot of money and raised 4 girls, not every penny I saved is going into this love but many penny's are. If I end up with zero at the end of my flying days....so be it !!


Don't feel bad. Or at least don't feel alone. I did the same thing two years ago. No way I'm ever going to get my money back out of that bird. But the thing is she's a pure joy to fly and every time I take her up I still can't believe that I own such a marvelous machine.
Besides, the wife wants to run to Austin this weekend and I don't want her packed in a sardine can with the Ebola infected masses so I suppose I'll have to fly her out there. Darn it. :dancing:


Interesting that Ebola could have a positive impact on GA.

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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 17:26 
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Joined: 12/12/07
Posts: 23808
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Location: Columbia, SC (KCUB)
Aircraft: 2003 Bonanza A36
The Mile High Club has a much greater impact on GA than ebola. Its also a big plus for cabin class twins.

_________________
Minister of Ice
Family Motto: If you aren't scared, you're not having fun!


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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 17:46 
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Joined: 12/25/12
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Location: KRHV San Jose, CA
Aircraft: A36, R44, C525
Username Protected wrote:
The Mile High Club has a much greater impact on GA than ebola. Its also a big plus for cabin class twins.



Roger that! Autopilot and 17,500. Statistically I think there's a greater chance of getting Ebola than a collision and ADSB solved that equation.

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Rocky Hill

Altitude is Everything.


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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 17:52 
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Joined: 12/09/10
Posts: 3634
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Location: KPAN
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Rocky a mile is only 5280 ft. That would be the 3 mile high club.

_________________
520 M35, 7ECA, CL65, CE550, E170/190, B737
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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 18:23 
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Joined: 06/17/13
Posts: 3432
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Location: Cabot Arkansas
Hoping this trend holds on for a couple of years. Hoping for a 55, but gotta make a few things happen first ....


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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 18:48 
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Joined: 02/14/09
Posts: 6068
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Company: tomdrew.lawyer
Location: Des Moines, IA (KDSM)
Aircraft: 1973 Baron E55
On a more serious note, this is the best time in the past 25 years to step up and fly a twin.

Back when gas was cheap there was no BT and we didn't have access to "free" information that saves $$$. Maintenance issues were just a crap shoot and a throw the keys affair. Also, interest rates are at all time lows. Twins may be declining in value, but in reality, so are our savings accounts. So, there are many ways to look at this market and timing in buying a twin.

If a pilot wants to fly an airplane that may retain some of its value, buy a C182. A C182 pilot will have plenty of time to count his money while traveling across the country at 135 kts. If a pilot wants to experience "performance" at some point in time before going to the big hangar in the sky, buy a Baron.

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Last edited on 14 Oct 2014, 19:26, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 19:06 
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Joined: 05/31/09
Posts: 2307
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Location: KFHR
Aircraft: Stinson 108-2
Costs. It used to be much cheaper to fill the cabin and fly up to the San Juans for a long weekend. Even with just two on board it was about break even with the airlines, plus I got to land exactly where I wanted to go. In the case of Orcas, tie down the airplane and walk to the B&B.
Now, you can reserve round trips to SEA for under $200 a head. Even with the ground transportation and the ferry, that's cheaper than flying myself at 15 expensive gallons per hour times four and a half hours, times two (for the return flight). And the costs to maintain a certified a/c have risen in lockstep with avgas, not inflation. Shops are closing because there aren't any airplanes to work on, and those that remain open are going "concierge" and shifting over to where they keep the money: Turbine Land.
Avgas is stupid expensive. Airfares are stupid cheap. And there you have it.
Robin


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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 19:14 
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Joined: 12/25/12
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Location: KRHV San Jose, CA
Aircraft: A36, R44, C525
Username Protected wrote:
Rocky a mile is only 5280 ft. That would be the 3 mile high club.



Your right but you can have cocktails when it take 3 times as long :D

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Altitude is Everything.


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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 19:50 
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Joined: 12/12/07
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Location: Columbia, SC (KCUB)
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Username Protected wrote:
Rocky a mile is only 5280 ft. That would be the 3 mile high club.



Your right but you can have cocktails when it take 3 times as long :D


Mile High club with the O2 turned up high, Give it a try
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Family Motto: If you aren't scared, you're not having fun!


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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 20:06 
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Joined: 12/19/08
Posts: 12160
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Aircraft: C55
I am a firm believer that if you can afford to run a twin it is the best time to buy one - especially a 55 or even a Duke. Back in the late 80s or early 90s there was a flying magazine that featured the Duke and it was titled something like "The Duke, a dream plane for most of us, but for a few...." It went on to talk about prices of $250-$500k used.

I never thought I would be able to afford a Baron, never mind a Duke. Back in 1990 when I had my Arrow a friend had a 58P with a loran and HSI, etc. I remember that he had $375k in it. I never thought I would have one of them either. Well, in the last 6 years I have owned 4 B55 Colemills, B58 Colemill, 58P, and 2 Dukes! I also had a KA90F for a short time, A-Star (helo, not Piper) a decked out V35, a turbine Helicycle, and even a little AA1A. Now I have a Glasair that the previous owner had $350k and 3000 hours of build time in. I'm in it for a small percentage of that and it has avionics and performance that are better than just about anything you can buy new.

It is a GREAT time to own something capable if you have the cash to spend. With a plane like the Duke for $80k and low time engines you simply fly it for 10-15 years and then scrap it. If it is worth $10k in scrap so be it. Most people spend more than that in depreciating cars. It is an incredible opportunity for twin wannabes to actually be. I don't think the chance will come up again. The trend is going towards experimental and throw-away singles. You will never see another new plane like a T-Bone, Duke, 421, PBaron, again. Beech won't produce the 58 forever either with prices being $1M+ Enjoy them while you can.

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The kid gets it all. Just plant us in the damn garden, next to the stupid lion.


Last edited on 14 Oct 2014, 20:08, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 14 Oct 2014, 20:06 
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Joined: 03/18/09
Posts: 1161
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Company: Elemental - Pipistrel
Location: KHCR
Aircraft: Citation CJ2+
Username Protected wrote:
Quote:
Don't worry. BT isn't ALL a bunch of old codgers fantasizing about yesteryear. Everyone else is just tired of arguing with them.

Jason, (no compliment intended, no offense, either) how many pictures of BT'rs do you see of Guys who look younger than you?
Not many.

That's because the average age of us, as a group, is old/er. Very few 30 or 40 something year old Guys own Bonanzas.


I used to own Bo - back in my 20s.... :-)

I guess I kind of do now - Textron - baby. That's what I keep telling myself.

38 here...

Crandall - I'll be at NBAA for a few days - lots of fun. I'm flying myself there as well - making a stop along the way to drop off kids. Can't do that on the airlines!

-jason

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http://www.elemental.aero

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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 15 Oct 2014, 10:39 
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Joined: 01/24/10
Posts: 7435
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Location: Concord , CA (KCCR)
Aircraft: 1967 Baron B55
If the Ebola problem continues to grow, our economy and aircraft prices will take a nose dive.


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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 15 Oct 2014, 10:41 
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Joined: 01/18/11
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Location: Lakeland , Ga
Aircraft: H35, T-41B, Aircoupe
I will give you 100 dollars to take my duke now.


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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 15 Oct 2014, 10:43 
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Joined: 01/31/10
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Company: 320 Fam
Aircraft: 58TC
Username Protected wrote:
I will give you 100 dollars to take my duke now.

Make it $1K and you gotta deal.

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 Post subject: Re: Twin Prices Crashing
PostPosted: 15 Oct 2014, 10:53 
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Joined: 12/19/08
Posts: 12160
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Aircraft: C55
Username Protected wrote:
If the Ebola problem continues to grow, our economy and aircraft prices will take a nose dive.


Ebola is only a very small part of the equation. I would go further, but I respect the Jeff's policies :D

Seriously though, we have traded real wealth for unsupported fiat paper that has literally destroyed our economic foundation. It is not normal for a market to go down 40% in a year and then climb 110% over the next 5-6 years and then correct 10% in a month. It is also not normal for commodities to double or triple in value in a few years and then correct sharply down. Our monetary policies will wipe out all wealth before it is over. Whether anyone wants to believe it or not, high fuel prices is 90% of the reason twins are down in price. If 100LL was $2.00 again I would want a Duke. $80 per hour in fuel cost would be a bargain. If I knew it would hold it's value (ie fuel not being $5-6) I would invest $250k in one and would maintain it properly. Instead, with the way our monetary policy stands I would simply just fly it with deferred maintenance until it quits.

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The kid gets it all. Just plant us in the damn garden, next to the stupid lion.


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