I am wondering if we are seeing two completely separate scenarios unfolding. One, is the lower GA market of piston airplanes, that, I believe are seeing a boom due to covid money. The capability of these pilots and airplanes are simply not on any par with airline transportation. On the other hand is the upper market of high end turbo props and jets, mostly flown by professional pilots. This is fueled by need, the true all weather capability of the equipment and a reflection of just how many people in this country are now making some really serious money. These people can afford six million dollar airplanes and professional pilots or $2,000 an hour charters at their door step.

If I'm right, and I'm betting Chip will say that he agrees, the first will fade, the second will not.

Jg

Jg, I believe what you described is spot on. If I was financially savvy, I’d be selling my Baron right now and then sit on the sidelines for a couple of years when I could buy it back for fifty cents on the dollar.

Sven,

I've got some better bets for you. Keep the Baron and buy some of the stocks depressed by covid. I wish that we were more active in the markets.

Jg

Yep, I think you are spot on. There have always been a lot more folks who could fly private than did fly private. Now they do... not enough airframes.

With respect to fuel for the fire there are still record cash deposits sitting in business bank accounts. A lot of the PPP money paid off debt and banks have seen loan volumes shrink or not grow as a result. And they are still awash in cash. So, I'd expect, absent a recession for demand for all kinds of equipment, including airplanes, to continue strongly in to 2022.

“Your flight department is going to have an airline problem” is great article written not too long ago about how pilots will leave their current jobs now that all 121 airline companies are hiring 1,000+ pilots per year. Many high net worth owners might have a problem finding and retaining experienced and safe pilots to operate their airplanes in the future.
Maybe if they match Netjets compensation package they will keep good crewmembers.

There’s never been a pilot shortage, only a pay shortage.

Someone wants to blow their coin on a $40 million dollar jet, but stiff the crew. Reap what you sow.

Wanted: xxxx Captain, 5000+ hours, 2500+ PIC, 2500 Turbine, 1000 type, starting $35,000/yr.



Yah, okay. Where do I apply.

Wanted: xxxx Captain, 5000+ hours, 2500+ PIC, 2500 Turbine, 1000 type, starting $35,000/yr. Must be current and qualified, and willing to fund own training.



Yah, okay. Where do I apply.

There’s never been a pilot shortage, only a pay shortage.

Someone wants to blow their coin on a $40 million dollar jet, but stiff the crew. Reap what you sow.

When I was a senior in high school, I had two afternoon and weekend jobs. Both paid minimum wage of $1.40 an hour which would be $11.65 today. I haven't paid minimum wage in my businesses since the late 70's when it failed to keep up with inflation. Even the high school concession workers at the theater have been paid more.

For decades now, businesses have abounded that paid 80% of their employees less than a "head of household" wage. I am one of the few business men I know who have seen the increase in wages as a result of covid as, mostly, a good thing.

There are some gross discrepancies in our country and a heck of a lot more in our world. There is something amiss when corporate executives make hundreds, sometimes thousands of dollars more than the bulk of the company's employees.

The larger problem is that nothing is "fixed". We are moving into a technological world where training, education, and brains are a requirement for meaningful employment. A freighting percentage of our population will have none of the three: but they will have the vote.

That is not a political statement though some of the mentally challenged here will see it as one.

Civilization is going to have to deal with issues here to fore unimagined in the near coming years.

Jg

I never understood the whole tipping business. If the employee does an outstanding job, they should be rewarded by their employer, not the customer. That's the way it works in my business, at least.

Spending most of my time outside the US now and they don't have the tipping culture for the most part. Maybe you'll do a "keep the change" thing at most. Tipping is (or was) illegal in Saudi Arabia because it's considered a form of bribery.

I actually get irritated when I travel to the US and have to tip (unless someone goes above and beyond their normal job duties). Restaurants are now "suggesting" 25% on the bill. I even went to a pizza place for take out and the card machine asked me if I wanted to pay a tip. Really, for takeout???

Did some research on tipping and supposedly it started during Prohibition because restaurants were losing a lot of money and customers were feeling sympathetic towards the wait staff.

Another story (from England perhaps) is that TIPS stands for "To Insure (sic) Prompt Service". So you have to bribe the wait staff to do a good job?

Tangental, but I enjoyed the tipping jobs. I would never expect the restaurant to pay me a "living wage" for a job that was never intended to be one. I typically worked rush and make good money during rush. The prospect of a tip made me hustle and hopefully provide a better service. The employer isn't going to hire yet another tier of middle managers to hover over customers and the wait and kitchen staff and provide critical evaluations minute to minute or day to day and besides you know that if it's a a matter of taking a fixed pool of money and sending it down stream to the hourly people or up stream to the owners is going to go up stream. Getting cash, at least back in the day, as a direct reward for my efforts outside of uncle sam's grubby little paws and the influence of the ownership was great. I would've had absolutely no desire to have some well intentioned SJW come in and fix the system for me, which in the end would've resulted in me making less money.

There was always a problem finding good roughnecks when I had my drilling company. I paid an average of 10-15% above the average market rate in my given area. As a result, I had a never ending supply of applications to choose from. As a result of that, our quality of work was above average, and so was our profits.
Funny how all that works, and how hard that concept is to grasp for the majority of business owners.

I’m actually a fan of tipping. You are going to pay one way or the other, US restaurants are a better value (by far) than most countries.

I like the opportunity to be generous with good waitstaff, they are actually working for me at that moment in time and they act like it. I rarely go to restaurants where tipping isn’t involved because I hate crappy service.

I also tip our building’s Conciegere, I tip line guys, shuttle bus drivers, etc., just yesterday we gave our local Hertz rep a JetACQ Yeti with cash in it. It’s Christmas. She takes good care of us.

I’m just happy folks are showing up for work when so many are not.