22 Jun 2025, 22:46 [ UTC - 5; DST ]
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Post subject: Re: New Production Jet Numbers Posted: 25 Aug 2024, 00:21 |
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Joined: 06/17/14 Posts: 5908 Post Likes: +2657 Location: KJYO
Aircraft: C-182, GA-7
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Like Mike C, I am curious. There is definitely some statistics that can be gathered based upon things like operations a day/week, as well as information about hours/week versus the average from any flight schools or instructors, if they want to share. AVGAS usage and flowage rates, if the are available may help as well. NetJets certainly hasn't deferred any deliveries and is looking at 100+/- jets per year from Textron, some as net new aircraft and some replacing aging aircraft in their fleet.
I would love to have 15 seconds with Mr. Gallagher or Mr. Buffet to get their input into what their front line is seeing.
Aircraft deliveries and deferments have started to happen with Frontier, JetBlue, and Spirit with Jet Blue just reprioritizing what aircraft it gets from Airbus. United is pushing EIS for some aircraft back into 2027 with various excuses (maintenance and pilot readiness) but hasn't officially deferred delivery of aircraft like the A356.
My FA friends are seeing an uptick in the number of flights they are on and hours worked, but still within keeping the union and FAA happy. However, with some flights cancelled, for whatever reason, a few friends on reserve blocks are getting a flight and a few extra hours to enjoy whatever exciting location, like EWR or CVG or CLT, that they get stuck at! Planes have been packed this summer according to the FAs I talked to.
Several of the local pilots and instructors have had their start date rescinded or their start date pushed back into 2025, so they are hanging around longer. Surprisingly, this is increasing the number of flights and operations as they work to stay current or pick up students that had been on the waitlist for an instructor.
Numbers of noise complaints are higher now at KJYO than they have been in years, though I have not read the minutes from the August meeting since I was out of town and otherwise occupied last week and this week.
GT Aviation had its largest operational year last year and sold to Aero Elite, who is expanding and now may be larger than Aviation Adventures with 6 operations. Though, I haven't counted their airplanes. Well done for a guy still working a full-time job, instructing. His Operations Chief at KJYO is really amazing.
However, I will be interested in the number of student starts this fall and next fall across all the schools operating in Northern Virginia.
I do believe that the economy is cooling off and this will, ultimately, will start affecting aviation if it already hasn't. However, I do expect that there will be some work done to bump up the economy, lower rates to make housing affordable again, continue to lower fuel costs, continue to pressure corporate critters to forsake a few profits between now and the end of the year, for some funny reason. ...and I don't want to light that fuse and derail discussions.
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